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You asked

Why do users sign up but not stay?

People activate but don’t stick around long term.

Symptom

At 68%, the activation rate is up four points month over month.

Cause

The mechanism is definition misalignment.

Impact

When 68% of new users activate but only 31% of those activated users reach month three, the effective retention rate on new user cohorts is 21% — not 68%.

Full diagnostic context

People activate but don’t stick around long term.

At 68%, the activation rate is up four points month over month.

The mechanism is definition misalignment.

When 68% of new users activate but only 31% of those activated users reach month three, the effective retention rate on new user cohorts is 21% — not 68%.