Symptom
The distortion lives in repeat purchase rate — it counts transactions without measuring transaction value creating the appearance of healthy retention while AOV declines with each successive purchase in the sequence.
You asked
Repeat purchase rate improves while average order value declines — discount-driven win-back campaigns drive returns but anchor transaction values below baseline producing compounding AOV decay across the purchase sequence.
Symptom
The distortion lives in repeat purchase rate — it counts transactions without measuring transaction value creating the appearance of healthy retention while AOV declines with each successive purchase in the sequence.
Cause
Win-back campaigns offering discount-depth incentives drive the return visit but establish a lower price expectation for the customer relationship — the discount anchoring effect persists beyond the discounted transaction into third and fourth purchases.
Impact
To hold prior period revenue flat the business needs 28% more transactions at current AOV — margin per transaction is compressed from both directions as revenue falls while fulfillment cost stays variable with volume.
Repeat purchase rate improves while average order value declines — discount-driven win-back campaigns drive returns but anchor transaction values below baseline producing compounding AOV decay across the purchase sequence.
The distortion lives in repeat purchase rate — it counts transactions without measuring transaction value creating the appearance of healthy retention while AOV declines with each successive purchase in the sequence.
Win-back campaigns offering discount-depth incentives drive the return visit but establish a lower price expectation for the customer relationship — the discount anchoring effect persists beyond the discounted transaction into third and fourth purchases.
To hold prior period revenue flat the business needs 28% more transactions at current AOV — margin per transaction is compressed from both directions as revenue falls while fulfillment cost stays variable with volume.