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You asked

Why do paid campaigns seem to drive conversions that would happen anyway?

It feels like I’m paying for customers I would have gotten for free.

Symptom

At 4.2%, the blended paid conversion rate is up eight-tenths of a point month over month.

Cause

The mechanism is attribution window overlap.

Impact

When cannibalization is excluded and spend is held against only the conversions it actually created, the true incremental CPA typically runs two to three times the reported blended

Full diagnostic context

It feels like I’m paying for customers I would have gotten for free.

At 4.2%, the blended paid conversion rate is up eight-tenths of a point month over month.

The mechanism is attribution window overlap.

When cannibalization is excluded and spend is held against only the conversions it actually created, the true incremental CPA typically runs two to three times the reported blended