Symptom
The distortion lives in the model update cadence — runway projections are built once at planning time and reviewed quarterly while actual burn diverges from assumptions monthly creating a gap that compounds between reviews
Cause
Hiring front-loading infrastructure step functions and revenue timing slippage all cause actual burn to exceed model projections simultaneously during growth phases — the compound effect produces Runway Accuracy Gaps above twenty-five percent within one to two quarters
Impact
Every decision made on the twelve-month projected timeline was made with five months of false cushion — hiring approvals GTM investments and fundraising timing all require reassessment against the seven-month actual revised runway